Conference - thoughts on two themes

I was in Birmingham on Sunday, but had to leave that evening ...

It was great to see friends and colleagues from all over the country again and it was interesting to see how some have changed ... both physically (I am thinking of the party worker who appears to be a fraction of his former self - he looks great) and in their approach.

Since then, I have watched and listened to what has gone on with interest.  There are 2 themes that seem to recur in the discussion and debat in the press.

The first relates to the coming 'armageddon' in public services.  I suspect that we shall all be rather surprised and that it will not be the 'armageddon' that our opponents hope it will be - after all, the expenditure as a proportion of GDP and in terms of money will be vastly greater than it was when the Conservatives were last in power, and it should be remembered that we will be returning to expenditure at a level that was last seen ... well, a few years' ago. 

Related to that is the reorganisation of some of the public bodies that currently exist and the abolition of numerous quangos.  The resignation of someone who appears to be accepted as an expert in the field of child protection is interesting and regrettable - but the argument that 'everyone who knows about child protection says that it is essential that the Child Expoitation and Online Protection Agency (CEOP) is independent of every other body' is neither informative nor persuasive.  It is for those who wish this body to remain semi-independent (currently it is affiliated to SOCA) to explain why it would be better for it to remain semi-independent or become independent - and shouting that the proposal to take it into the new National Crime Agency 'endangers children' or is 'disgraceful' lacks that essential element.  For those of us who visit this issue occasionally, it would be helpful for this to be explained ...

The second theme is the speculation about why the Conservative Party was not even more successful in the general election.  Essentially there are three reasons trotted out - (1) the lack of coherenece in the campaign, (2) the failure of the Conservatives to adequately detoxify their brand and (3) the failure of the Conservatives to make any significant progress in Scotland and in areas of the UK where there are significant numbers of poorer people and people from ethnic minorities.

My own view is that the third is probably part of the first and second.  The campaign did, on occasion, appear rather disjointed - but that as much the result of innovations in the campaign (the so-called 'Leaders' Debates') that were not really the fault of the Conservative Party as the result of anything done in and by the Conservative campaign itself. 

The reaction of people to the expenses scandal and the appearance that politicians were in it for themselves made pushing a partisan message extremely difficult ... and possibly even more difficult than it was in the European campaign in 2009. 

The economic situation was (and remains) dire, partly as a result of things done and things not done by the last Government - and although it is clear that the Labour party was and is (rightly in my view) blamed by the electorate for its part in the creation of the mess, it is also, I think, correct to say that the message being sold by us was too nuanced.

In addition, it is clear that there are significant numbers of voters, especially in areas where the Conservatives have not been competitive for many years, who have bought the message that the Conservatives are in it for themselves and their friends ... that the message is false doesn't matter.  If we, as Conservatives, are not there to show that it is false, we leave the field to our opponents to define us and what we stand for.  To that end we need to find ways to ensure that we start to sell our distinctive political message everywhere (again).

Finally, we should not forget that the campaign we fought was also extraordinarily successful - we achieved the biggest number of gains, in terms of seats won, that we have achieved in generations - and David Cameron is our Prime Minister.